There is no front collapse. How the Ukrainian army's exit from Ugledar will alter the battlefield and which cities are at risk.
Russian forces in the Donetsk region have not halted their advance after capturing Uglidar and continue to apply pressure on other fronts. Clearly, the primary targets are Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk, but the enemy is also maintaining focus on secondary directions. What to expect on the front lines and which cities are next at risk is detailed in this piece by RBC-Ukraine.
Uglidar Lost, but the Front Hasn't Collapsed
The Russian army reached Uglidar early in the full-scale invasion of 2022. However, the "cursed fortress," as dubbed by enemy propaganda, refused to surrender, despite being on the brink for a long time. The advantageous positions allowed the Defense Forces not only to hold their ground but also to eliminate the enemy.
One of the most notable defeats for Putin's troops occurred near Uglidar. In February 2023, the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade—an elite unit of the Pacific Fleet—suffered heavy losses. Following that incident, large-scale assaults in the area ceased until Russian forces began relying on aerial bombs.
These bombs changed the situation, and since August, the occupiers have started to advance from the flanks. Within a few weeks, they captured territories to the west and east of Uglidar, and by the end of September, the town was in a semi-encirclement, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces having only one road north, while the distance between the enemy's "pincers" shrank to just 2 km.
On October 1, reports of Uglidar's occupation emerged from the DeepState project. Photos and videos featuring tricolor flags appeared on Russian social media from various parts of the city. The official confirmation of the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces came the following day.
The next target for the Russians after Uglidar may be Kurakhovo (photo deepstatemap.live)
The operational-strategic grouping "Khortytsia" stated that the enemy had exhausted the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with flanking strikes, resulting in a threat of encirclement. "The high command has given permission for a maneuver to withdraw units from Uglidar to preserve personnel and military equipment," the military noted.
Uglidar was a valuable foothold in terms of fire influence on the railway logistics through Volnovakha (between the southern parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions). Its loss was undoubtedly a significant blow but did not provide the Russians with a strategic breakthrough.
According to the head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, Alexander Musienko, the withdrawal was executed quite smoothly under the pressure of significantly superior forces.
"There is no collapse of the front, and I believe there will not be one. The only thing to understand is that if the enemy can maintain such pressure, we will have to retreat closer to Kurakhovo to hold the defense from new positions and try to stop the RF. Kurakhovo will become a powerful defensive stronghold. The situation is under control, and it cannot be said that with the capture of Uglidar, the enemy gained a strategic advantage to develop a rapid offensive operation," he told RBC-Ukraine.
Unfortunately, it cannot yet be said that the Russians are prepared to slow down. The next strike could occur on this, another, or even multiple fronts.
Where the Russians Might Advance Next
The capture of Uglidar does not provide the occupying forces with any decisive advantage, agrees military-political analyst Alexander Kovalenko from the "Information Resistance" group.
He states that by the end of the year, the Russians have both primary objectives, such as capturing Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar, as well as secondary ones: cutting off the Robotynskyi bulge, opening the Orikhiv direction, intensifying towards Huliaipole and the Vremivka direction, reaching the left bank of the Oskil River, and splitting the Lyman-Kupyansk axis.
However, the Russians lack the forces and resources to fulfill all primary and secondary tasks. They also lack confidence in achieving superiority by 2025, as indicated by Vladimir Putin's orders to increase the size of the army, the expert believes.
As noted by British intelligence, Uglidar is located at the intersection of key Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts. They assess that a westward offensive towards Velyka Novosilka (toward Zaporizhzhia along the T0509 highway) and a northern advance towards the village of Bohoyavlenka are expected in the near future.
An offensive on Velyka Novosilka may serve as a diversionary maneuver (photo deepstatemap.live)
Kovalenko suggests that after Uglidar, the Russians will try to move towards Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka. However, this marks "a stage of very prolonged battles in the fields." Musienko identifies the main goal in this direction as the city of Kurakhovo, to approach it and encircle it.
Regarding Velyka Novosilka, the interlocutor recalls that less than a year ago, when the enemy was advancing after capturing Maryinka, it may have seemed that they were moving towards Kurakhovo without threatening Uglidar.
"But they did not bypass Uglidar. Therefore, I think that if they do advance on Velyka Novosilka, it will be to draw our forces away. But they will concentrate on a flanking operation in the Kurakhovo area," he explained in a conversation with the publication.
In the northern part of the Donetsk region, battles for Toretsk are taking place under more challenging conditions than at the beginning of the offensive on the agglomeration. Currently, Ukrainian forces are operating from industrial zones, and the landscape and geographical features, along with other obstacles, do not favor the Russians. Thus, Toretsk, like Uglidar and Avdiivka before it, is exhausting the Russian offensive resource.
Another painful topic has been Chasiv Yar, where the offensive has lasted since October 2023. So far, the occupiers have not crossed the "Siversky Donets – Donbas" canal and are losing up to a company per day, Kovalenko emphasizes.
Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk as Primary Targets
According to reports from the General Staff, the hottest points remain the Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk directions. Several dozen combat encounters are recorded there daily. From this, it can be concluded that Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk are the primary targets, and these cities may soon be under threat.
"These are currently the two main points where the Russians have concentrated their offensive activity. The goal is clear. To conduct flanking operations to encircle them, with the prospect of operational encirclement," says Musienko.
Pokrovsk is another city under threat, but the Russians still need to get through Selydove and Myrnohrad (photo deepstatemap.live)
In Kurakhovo, the enemy will attempt to advance from the south (from Uglidar) and from the east (from Maryinka). They cannot approach from the north due to natural obstacles. "This does not mean they will enter Kurakhovo. I think the main issue – is to create a threat of entry and apply pressure from the south and east," he noted.
Under Pokrovsk, the nature of the encircling operation has long been evident. The occupiers are trying to break through to the north through Myrnohrad and are moving south in the Selydove area.
"Why are they doing this? Because according to the Russian command's plan, even if they do not manage to enter these cities directly, they at least hope to encircle them and exert pressure from the flanks. This happened in Avdiivka, which was in a significant semi-encirclement until Russia amassed forces to enter the populated area," added Musienko.
In Kovalenko's opinion, the RF army seeks quick victories, but the southern flank is not yet prepared for an offensive on Pokrovsk. Additionally, the city of Selydove has become "a thorn in their side," and battles for it will be no less exhausting for the enemy than for Uglidar.
Are There Threats on Other Fronts?
Spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces Vladislav Voloshin stated last week about a possible resumption of more focused assaults in the Zaporizhzhia region. According to intelligence, the enemy is redeploying personnel and preparing to advance near Orikhiv and Robotyne.
If they manage to