A double blow to Russia's energy sector: the European Union and the United States are preparing new measures.

The European Union and the United States plan to intensify their efforts to reduce the consumption of Russian fossil fuels both in the EU and globally in the near future. What steps have already been taken in this direction and what is planned – in the material by RBC-Ukraine special correspondent Yuri Doshchatov.

The European Commission aims to present a plan to phase out Russian energy sources in a few weeks or even sooner. The EU has nearly ceased the use of coal and oil from Russia. The only exceptions for oil remain for Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, which continue to receive it through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline via Ukraine.

Natural gas supplies from Russia to the EU have significantly decreased after the halt of transit through Ukraine. Currently, gas from Russia can only be supplied through the "Balkan Stream" from the "Turkish Stream" – up to 15 billion cubic meters for Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Hungary.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to flow from Russia to the EU. Moreover, according to The Guardian, its imports have reached record levels. Last year, deliveries increased by 2 million tons to 17.8 million tons. After regasification, this amounted to almost 25 billion cubic meters.

The decisive factor for increasing supplies is price. Russian LNG is cheaper. Thus, Russia has overtaken Qatar and has become the second-largest supplier of LNG to Europe after the United States.

"Russian gas is still present in the EU market. And this is something we do not want to see, and it is certainly one of the issues that will be addressed in the plan to be presented in the coming weeks," said European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen recently.

Russian LNG may not be subject to sanctions

The details of the plan are still unknown. There is also no confirmation that Russian LNG will be included in the 16th sanctions package, which was planned to be adopted by February 24 – the date of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to sources from the publication, the European Commission is working on two options. The first is the imposition of sanctions, and the second is a plan to reduce the use of LNG.

"Overall, the discussion about phasing out Russian liquefied gas is progressing. There are fewer voices against it, but it is still unclear how exactly this will be done. The 16th sanctions package does not yet include LNG – perhaps the European Commission is considering making a decision in a different way (the phase-out plan – ed.). So, I hope the issue will be resolved, but a bit later," said Vladislav Vlasuk, the Ukrainian president's envoy for sanctions policy, to RBC-Ukraine.

Publicly, the ban on Russian gas, both pipeline and liquefied, has so far been supported by 10 countries in the EU. Among them are none that are interested in continuing supplies, particularly Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy, and Germany.

Interestingly, if until now only the leadership of Slovakia made loud statements with threats towards Ukraine due to the halt of transit, recently the Prime Minister of Hungary also expressed his dissatisfaction. Viktor Orbán promised to "resist" Ukraine for the cessation of transit. What exactly such "resistance" will entail – Orbán did not specify. But the position of these two countries could effectively block the introduction of new sanctions.

A source familiar with the situation suggested that Brussels is currently hesitant to rush, so as not to create the impression that the EU has become dependent on decisions made by Donald Trump, who has already announced intentions to increase LNG supplies to Europe. "If a decision is made quickly, it will essentially mean becoming dependent on LNG supplies from the U.S. But the European Commission wants the work in this direction to proceed in the form of equal partnership," said the source.

Trump's ultimatum for the EU

Considering Trump's recent rather sharp, essentially ultimatum-like statements, Europe's caution is justified. The new U.S. president has already stated – either the EU increases its purchases of oil and gas, or it faces increased tariffs on imports. "The only thing they (the EU – ed.) can do quickly is to buy our oil and gas… We will fix this with tariffs, or they will have to buy our oil and gas," Trump said after his inauguration. The EU has already stated that it is ready for dialogue.

In light of such statements, it can be assumed that the final decision on restrictions for LNG from Russia will be prolonged, and this issue will have to be further discussed by Brussels with Washington.

The U.S., for its part, intends to increase oil and gas production and ramp up supplies, including to Europe. "Storms, baby, storms," is the slogan under which Donald Trump's new energy policy will develop. It will be aimed at increasing oil and gas supplies not only to the EU but also to other regions, including those where Russian energy resources have dominated. Trump has already canceled his predecessor's decision to ban new oil and gas development in offshore areas.

How soon will there be results

The effect of the initial statements and decisions by the new head of the White House followed almost immediately. In India, which is the largest buyer of Russian oil, it was announced that they are ready to increase oil and gas purchases from the U.S. "There is a likelihood of increasing energy purchases between India and the U.S. We welcome the arrival of more energy resources from the U.S. to the market," said Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

Increasing production is not as easy and quick as making a statement about it, says Gennady Ryabtsov, director of the Psychea Center. In his opinion, there will be no real changes in the near future.

"For example, even after the cancellation of the ban on drilling new wells on the coast and federal lands, production will not immediately increase. Additionally, it will be necessary to unblock the construction of liquefied gas terminals on the Atlantic coast, and this requires time and money. And I want to emphasize that this project and these promises from Trump are for the four years of his presidency. So I wouldn't expect significant effects anytime soon," Ryabtsov stated in a comment to the publication.

However, if the displacement of Russian energy resources continues to escalate, the negative impact on the aggressor's economy will significantly increase. Just from the cessation of LNG supplies to the European Union, Russia could lose up to 7.3 billion euros annually – this is the income Moscow received from the sale of liquefied gas in the EU in 2024.