Not just elections. Why is Ukraine facing criticism in Poland, and how will this impact support for Kyiv?
Explore the reasons behind the deteriorating relations between Ukraine and Poland, the harsh criticism from Polish officials towards Kyiv, the impact of elections and historical conflicts, and whether Warsaw will continue to support us in the future – read the detailed article by RBK-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.
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Since the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion, the relationship between Poland and Ukraine has entered, albeit for tragic reasons, a genuine "honeymoon" phase. All previous disputes were forgotten, and Poland provided Ukraine with all possible assistance in this difficult time, from arms transfers to housing millions of refugees, from lobbying for Ukrainian interests in the West to establishing logistics centers for arms supplies on Polish territory. Ultimately, for most Ukrainians, given the closure of airports, Poland became the main "gateway" to the outside world.
However, after some time, the "honeymoon" began to fade. The first serious signal came from the massive protests last year and the border blockades by Polish farmers and transporters. In Ukraine, these actions were primarily linked to the intensification of political struggles ahead of the October parliamentary elections.
According to a prevalent thesis in Ukrainian political circles at the time, it was suggested that simply waiting for the elections would make all problems disappear on their own. Especially if power in the country shifted to the opposition led by Donald Tusk's "Civic Coalition." Ultimately, that is what happened, but the issues, particularly concerning the export of Ukrainian grain, did not vanish.
For some time, the new Polish authorities avoided emphasizing historical themes – however, they later began to reference them even more sharply than their predecessors. In recent months, various critical statements from Polish officials regarding Ukraine have been made regularly.
For instance, on November 5, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawłowski criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an interview on Radio ZET, alleging that he had "forgotten" about Polish assistance to Ukraine. This came after Zelensky stated that Poland had not delivered the MiG-29s to Ukraine, despite prior agreements.
"I got the impression that the latest words from President Zelensky are unworthy of a politician who owes much to Poland. The equipment has been provided, citizens are being cared for, Poland is a great friend of Ukraine, a transport hub. I thought that in such situations, one should express gratitude rather than blame," emphasized Gawłowski.
According to the Polish President's Office, since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the country has allocated 4.91% of its GDP to assist Ukraine. In terms of spending as a percentage of GDP, Poland claims to rank first among countries supporting Ukraine.
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Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Poland in Kyiv – Andriy Sibiga and Radoslaw Sikorski (photo: Vitaliy Nosach, RBK-Ukraine)
Earlier, in September, the visit of Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski to Kyiv led to a diplomatic scandal. Polish sources claimed that Zelensky allegedly repeated the assertion about insufficient support for Ukraine from Poland during his meeting with Sikorski. RBK-Ukraine's sources suggest that Sikorski himself wanted to leverage this visit for political purposes and self-promotion, linking Ukraine's further movement towards the EU with the resolution of historical contradictions, in a corresponding tone.
During the same visit to Kyiv, Sikorski voiced a puzzling idea about transferring the occupied Crimea under a UN mandate.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also spoke about the importance of historical issues.
"Ukraine will not become a member of the European Union without Poland's consent. Ukraine must meet certain standards, and these are diverse – they include not only border, trade, legal, and economic standards but also what I would call cultural-political standards," Tusk stated at the end of August.
Such statements from various representatives of the ruling coalition continue to emerge regularly to this day.
Reasons for Anti-Ukrainian Statements
The escalation of rhetoric towards Ukraine has its reasons for each Polish politician, as stated by an informed source in Polish affairs to RBK-Ukraine.
In May 2025, presidential elections will take place in Poland. Current President Andrzej Duda is completing his second term and will not seek re-election. A fierce competition is unfolding for the vacant position.
From the ruling "Civic Coalition," the main candidates are Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and the same Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. Trzaskowski appears to have more convincing chances, but the decision will ultimately be made in internal party primaries.
At the same time, the main opposition party, "Law and Justice" (PiS), lacks a candidate with sufficient influence and charisma to challenge anyone from the ruling party. Moreover, PiS continues to experience persistent and quite sharp internal conflicts.
Appeals to history, explains one source from the publication, are needed by representatives of the ruling party to seize this traditional theme from their opponents.
Additionally, the Polish Peasant Party, whose leader and Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is also notably critical of Ukraine, would not even pass the parliamentary threshold at present – the first time in over 30 years, which certainly encourages them to make sharp statements.
At the same time, according to Daniel Szeligowski, Coordinator of the Eastern Europe Program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, the reasons for such statements regarding Ukraine are different and more profound.
"Such assertions about Ukraine arise because, in essence, a consensus has already formed among all politicians in Poland. They are all tired of President Zelensky's constant accusations against Poland. And from the Polish side, there is currently little difference between the ruling party or the opposition, or left or right forces. They are all already fatigued by these Ukrainian accusations," Szeligowski told RBK-Ukraine.
All of this coincides with a general decline in public opinion regarding Ukrainians in Poland. According to a United Surveys poll conducted on October 21-22 for the publication Wirtualna Polska, 43.6% of Poles believe that relations between Poland and Ukraine have rather deteriorated. 17.7% are convinced that they have significantly worsened, while only 21.9% feel that they have not changed.
Another poll by CBOS, released on October 10, indicates that 53% of Poles support the acceptance of Ukrainian refugees in Poland. This is the lowest figure since the onset of the full-scale war. In March 2022, support for Ukrainian refugees among Poles was at 94%.
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Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky converse with soldiers in Warsaw against the backdrop of a Rosomak armored vehicle, April 2023 (photo: Getty Images)
On one hand, this is a predictable phenomenon. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the attitude towards Ukrainians improved significantly, and now there is a regression to pre-war levels, noted Szeligowski.
"In Poland, there was a very significant public mobilization. And this mobilization, of course, cannot be sustained in the long term. A similar process was observed in 2004 during the Orange Revolution and in 2013-14 during the Euromaidan," said the expert.
Another reason, according to Szeligowski, lies in the political rhetoric from the Ukrainian authorities.
"And this affects not only the attitude towards Ukrainians in Poland but also the perception of Ukraine as a whole. Polish society does not understand and does not accept these accusations from Ukraine," emphasized Szeligowski.
He stated that within the Polish political class, a consensus has emerged regarding two things. Firstly, Polish policy towards Ukraine has been significantly idealistic. Secondly, historical issues will impact the course of Ukraine's negotiations with the European Union.
Recognizing the existence of the "ingratitude" factor and irritation from some refugees, the Director of the Institute of World Politics, Yevhen Magda, noted in a conversation with RBK-Ukraine that the topic of Ukraine "consolidates the Polish voter."
On the other hand, it is likely that third parties are also stoking tensions, exploiting existing issues between Ukraine and Poland. Back in 2015, unknown vandals damaged UPA memorials in Poland. During the protests by Polish farmers in 2023-2024, both the Ukrainian and Polish foreign ministries spoke of a Russian influence.
"The blockade of Ukrainian grain transportation was a very sensitive moment and very well thought out. Not only because the '