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A new era: What can Ukraine expect after Trump's inauguration? Will peace negotiations finally begin?

To learn whether Donald Trump has developed a peace plan for Ukraine, the challenges faced by his team, their priorities, and whether negotiations to end the war will finally commence, read the article by RBC-Ukraine journalists Milan Lelich and Roman Kot.
Новая эра. Что ждет Украину после инаугурации Трампа? Начнутся ли мирные переговоры?

Read about whether Donald Trump has a peace plan for Ukraine, the challenges his team is facing, their priorities, and whether negotiations to end the war will finally begin – in the article by RBK-Ukraine journalists Milan Lelich and Roman Kot.

CONTENTS

On November 6 of last year, in the morning by Kyiv time, the world was introduced to a new "D-Day" January 20, 2025, when Donald Trump will take the oath of office as the new President of the United States. Since then, with the Republican's victory in the elections now a fact, all global political processes have been divided into two categories: "before the inauguration" and "after the inauguration."

For Ukraine, this has been more significant than for many others. Besides the fact that the U.S. is our number one ally in the war, it has a decisive influence on the political direction of Europe. Equally important is that the U.S. is the geopolitical player with whom the Kremlin is potentially ready to negotiate.

Trump himself stirred up passions even before his victory, with his famous promises to "end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours" and even "before officially taking office." This was quickly responded to in Ukrainian political circles, leading to the popular belief that "Trump will soon end the war," that martial law would not be extended, and that Ukraine would hold elections in the spring.

However, the newly elected American president began to slowly change his rhetoric; instead of "24 hours," he started promising to resolve everything simply "quickly," acknowledging the complexity of the "Russian-Ukrainian situation." Ultimately, he and his team began discussing peace settlements in terms of "months," with Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, for instance, giving himself a hundred days to find a "solution."

Finally, D-Day has arrived today Trump will finally receive his official presidential powers. And, according to sources from RBK-Ukraine, as of now, he does not have any specific "peace plan."

Why Trump has no ready-made peace plan

Kyiv began actively working with Trump's team several months before the presidential elections, while also maintaining working relations with the incumbent president Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Attempts to balance between the two warring camps in the U.S. sometimes nearly fell apart for example, when Republicans decided to accuse Volodymyr Zelensky of siding with the Democrats. And Trump kept the intrigue about whether he would meet with the Ukrainian president until the last moment, simultaneously making sarcastic remarks about Zelensky.

Eventually, a meeting took place in New York before the elections, and subsequently, another one this time in Paris, with French President Emmanuel Macron participating.

Meanwhile, negotiations were also happening at the advisor level the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, flew to the U.S. to communicate with Trump's team. In January, Kellogg's visit was awaited in Kyiv, hoping to finally reach some specifics. However, he postponed the trip until after the inauguration. As informed sources told RBK-Ukraine, the real reason for the postponement Trump's team still lacks a vision of how to end the war in Ukraine. "They really understood how complex this problem is," said a source from RBK-Ukraine.

How American mediation can work when such a vision exists was vividly demonstrated by last week's events in the Middle East. Negotiations between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, mediated by Biden's team, lasted for months without any significant results.

However, Trump's special representative in the region, Steven Witkoff, achieved a real breakthrough from both sides in just one visit, despite the fact that neither Israel nor Hamas were satisfied with the agreement and were forced to reach a painful compromise.

But Trump's team already understands that such an approach will not work with Ukraine and Russia. However, they cannot publicly acknowledge that the promises of a quick end to the war in Ukraine were never grounded in reality.

According to RBK-Ukraine, there are two main reasons for this. The first Trump's team has begun to realize how challenging it will be to negotiate both with Kyiv and especially with Moscow.

The Ukrainian leadership continues to assert its subjectivity and the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." Moreover, preparations for the possible excesses following Trump's arrival have been underway for a long time. For at least the coming months, Ukraine is financially secure, and partially supplied with ammunition for the Defense Forces. Assistance from European countries is also predictable, within the framework of cooperation agreements in security and other mechanisms.

However, while Kyiv is generally negotiable and reasonable, it is difficult to say the same about Moscow. The aggressor country relies on China, which has essentially become its deep rear. Although economic problems in the Russian Federation have intensified, the Russian leadership is overall far less dependent on public opinion and still has the capacity to mobilize resources. Evidence of this is the recent statements from influential and longtime aide to the Russian dictator Nikolai Patrushev, who is part of Putin's inner circle, claiming that Ukraine "will cease to exist" as a country in 2025.

The second reason Trump's team, and he personally, are very concerned about their image as "tough guys." After all, this is also why the new U.S. president is so loved by the MAGA electorate. "Making America great again," which Trump promises to restore, in an external aspect boils down to the following scheme: America commands – others obey.

However, in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Trump and his supporters have faced the reality that this scheme is ineffective. Trump will need to sit down at the table, likely even a round one, with other participants in the events, to talk, prove, and argue. And this somehow does not align with the image of the "tough guy" who commands everyone.

Moreover, the new American administration cannot show weakness right at the beginning of Trump's presidency – both in the world and in front of its own voters. Therefore, it is clearly taking a pause and refraining from quick decisions and drastic actions, which is related to the uncertainty regarding new meetings between Trump and Putin or Zelensky.

Additionally, Trump's team has many other concerns.

Other priorities of Trump and his team

The high-profile story of Trump's desire to buy Greenland and annex Canada is just a small part of the foreign policy agenda in the U.S. There is also domestic politics, which is inherently more important for the American public.

White House Chief of Staff Susan Wiles stated in an interview with Axios that the first two years will be crucial for Trump – until the next midterm elections in Congress. In the U.S., the legislative body is renewed every two years. The House of Representatives is completely renewed, while the Senate is renewed by a third. So far, Republicans hold full power in the country and intend to make the most of this time.

On the first day of his presidency, Trump plans to sign around a hundred executive orders. The content of these orders may reveal much about his priorities in office and what he will focus most of his attention on.

In particular, Trump plans to revoke several executive orders from his predecessor Joe Biden, which allowed hundreds of thousands of migrants from certain countries to legally enter on humanitarian grounds and obtain work permits in the U.S. He also wants to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization, and possibly impose trade tariffs against several countries. Additionally, Trump plans to pardon participants of the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.

The vast majority of the orders pertain to U.S. domestic policy, which is of little significance to Ukraine.

Another telling detail. Last week, hearings began in the Senate to confirm Trump's team. During these hearings, U.S. Secretary of Defense candidate Pete Hegseth defined priorities in his opening statement: containment of China and relations with allies in the Indo-Pacific region, but did not mention Ukraine and Russia. Senators even had to ask Hegseth about this, yet without significant results.

Of course, there are different people in Trump's team. The business wing led by Elon Musk is predominantly skeptical about Ukraine. But the good news is that these individuals will not be actively engaged in the Russian-Ukrainian war, at least not as part of their direct responsibilities. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are set to head the newly created