No breaks ahead. Where can Russia advance in winter, and will the Ukrainian Armed Forces be able to hold the Kursk region?
Russian forces continue their gradual offensive in Donbas, closing in on Kupiansk. Additionally, there are preparations to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region. This overview from RBC-Ukraine covers the situation on the hottest spots along the front and how events might unfold this winter.
Kupiansk Repels Assault Attempt
After months of intense fighting, by the end of October, the enemy reached the Oskol River south of Kupiansk. Following the occupation of the villages of Kruglyakovka and Kolesnikovka, the pace of the advance slowed. Apparently, this foothold on the left bank of the Oskol is needed by the Russians for further movement south, specifically towards the northern part of the Donetsk region. Their primary target there will be Lyman. However, for this, the enemy must gain control of at least the eastern part of Kupiansk: the main road that facilitates supply to the troops runs through this city from Svatovo.
To quickly enter Kupiansk, an attack from the north is required. And the Russian forces launched this strike. Last week, on November 13, two columns of equipment moved out from the area of Lyman Pershyi. Footage appeared online showing one armored personnel carrier reaching Nekrasova Street. After it was hit, a dozen enemy soldiers scattered into nearby houses.
On the following day, the General Staff denied reports of Russians being in Kupiansk. According to analysts from DeepState, part of the airborne unit was neutralized by drones, and on Friday, videos emerged showing the clearing of the eastern district and the capture of prisoners.
1The Russians had previously attempted to break into Kupiansk from the north, but the Defense Forces did not allow them to establish a foothold (photo deepstatemap.live)
It remains unclear how often the enemy will attempt to repeat this. Whether they will be able to secure a foothold is uncertain, says military-political analyst Alexander Kovalenko from the "Information Resistance" group. According to him, the fact that the occupiers managed to reach the Zaoskole area, overcoming almost 4 km along the only straight road from Lyman Pershyi, is a troubling sign.
"I do not understand how such an entry was allowed. If this happens repeatedly, they may soon have the opportunity to establish themselves on the outskirts of Kupiansk. If our control is strengthened, they will not succeed by the end of the year. It all depends on the conclusions that are made," the interlocutor stated.
Military expert Vladislav Seleznev emphasizes that the enemy aims to take control of a key railway hub in eastern Kharkiv region. This would allow them not only to move south along the Oskol but also to subsequently form a strike foothold towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Further south, in the area of the breakthrough towards the river, the occupiers will continue to advance both towards Kupiansk and Borova, Kovalenko explains. Moreover, east of Borova, they have expanded their zone of control near the villages of Vyshevoye and Pershotravnevoye, from which a direct road leads.
"It would seem that there are almost 15 km to the front line. But if conclusions are not drawn from the precedent in the Golden Niva – Shakhtarsk area (Donetsk region, Ugladar direction, breakthrough of mechanized columns by 6.5 km – ed.), the situation may repeat itself here. I think our guys understand everything. But sometimes unfortunate mistakes affect a specific section of the front," he added.
The Enemy Tries to Encircle Kurakhove
In Donbas, the Russians have begun assaults on Kurakhove – an important logistics hub for Ukrainian forces. They managed to penetrate deep into residential areas from the eastern direction. From there, they were able to reach the southern outskirts near the village of Dalneye but were halted by a counterstrike from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"The eastern outskirts – Shakhtarska, Stepna streets, and the alleys between them – are under the control of Russian occupiers. The eastern part is under constant pressure; they are trying to break into the center. However, in addition to our resistance, they are hindered by a ravine. It is a natural obstacle, similar to what the canal in Chasiv Yar was at one time," says Kovalenko.
Reports indicate ongoing mechanized assaults and attempts to parachute infantry. After one of these attempts, the enemy secured a position in school No. 3, but they were managed to be expelled.
The enemy is attacking the Kurakhove garrison head-on from the east and is pressing from the northern and southern flanks (photo deepstatemap.live)
Meanwhile, the flanks are narrowing. In the north, the "gray zone" is encroaching on the village of Berestki on the banks of the local reservoir, which is likely under at least partial enemy control. Additionally, south of Kurakhove, the occupiers have managed to advance towards the settlement of Dalneye. Furthermore, on the left flank, there is another dangerous breakthrough towards this city – from Ugladar to the north. Moreover, along the line of Yasna Polyana – Maksimivka, the enemy is trying to move towards the N15 highway from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk.
Judging by the direction of the strikes, they aim to create a threat of encirclement for the Defense Forces units holding the line between the conditional Kurakhove and Ugladar directions.
Between the northern and southern approaches to the city lies the Kurakhove reservoir on the Vovcha River. On November 11, the Ternovka dam was blown up. Officially, this was said to be a result of Russian shelling. In a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel, Ukrainian soldier Serhiy Volkov stated that a month ago, the main road to Kurakhove ran over this dam.
According to expert Seleznev, the Ukrainian army may soon begin rearguard battles to ensure the retreat of the main forces from Kurakhove.
"We practically have no options to hold the Kurakhove garrison. And if we raise the question of what is more important – the lives of the soldiers or the territory – we must bet on life. Because the further it goes, the more complicated logistics become," he noted.
He also predicts that the situation around Kurakhove may soon descend into the "fog of war," just as it did with Ugladar and Selydove. "Even the redeployment of significant reinforcements to this area is unlikely to change the situation," Seleznev added.
The Battle for Pokrovsk Has Shifted Timelines
The defense of Pokrovsk has forced the Russians to change their military campaign plan in eastern Ukraine, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This is because the frontal assault has failed. It began at a time when Ukraine was restricted in resources due to the suspension of American aid in the fall of 2023.
For about a month, the enemy has been practically stalled 7-8 km from Pokrovsk, focusing on advancing from the south. During this month, they managed to capture Selydove and approach a similar distance from the direction of Vyshevoye.
The battle for Pokrovsk is likely postponed until January (photo deepstatemap.live)
Previously, many experts believed that the battle for Pokrovsk would become the general battle of 2024. However, it seems that the Defense Forces have managed to at least shift its timelines. How long this shift will last is difficult to say. According to Alexander Kovalenko, everything will depend on the Kurakhove salient. The Russians will not begin their offensive until they establish a southern flank by capturing Kurakhove and all the "tails" along the river Sukhyi Yaly.
"If the defense of Kurakhove lasts at least until the beginning of December, I do not rule out that the offensive on Pokrovsk may start in the first quarter of next year," the expert stated.
Here, the enemy is forced to take an operational pause. But the problem is that it is unclear what