The unpredictability of politics: Will Trump revoke Ukraine's permission to strike deep into Russia?
Can the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump revoke Ukraine's permissions to strike with Western weapons after taking office, and why has he not yet responded to Ukrainian attacks unlike his entourage? This is explored in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Dmitry Levitsky.
Contents
- Trump's entourage criticizes while he remains silent
- Will Trump revoke the permission for strikes deep into Russia?
On the evening of Sunday, November 17, a long-awaited announcement appeared in American media: the administration of President Joe Biden lifted restrictions on Ukraine's strikes against Russia using ATACMS missiles and Storm Shadow.
Later, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the provision of permission, hinting that it was time for Berlin to reconsider its position on the Taurus cruise missiles, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has long refused to supply to Ukraine. Recently, the first ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles struck targets within Russia.
The Washington decision regarding permissions for strikes with Western weapons deep into Russia marked a significant shift in the current U.S. administration's policy concerning the war in Ukraine, which had long refrained from this step due to fears of escalation, crossing yet another "red line" set by Moscow. This change is believed to be influenced by the deepening cooperation between Russia and North Korea, particularly the involvement of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine.
However, following Donald Trump's inauguration, known for his unpredictability, at the end of January next year, there is a risk that permissions for strikes deep into Russia may be reconsidered.
Trump's entourage criticizes while he remains silent
Trump's associates and close entourage have expressed their emotions candidly while commenting on Biden's decision.
Trump's son labeled those who granted Ukraine permission as "imbeciles" and accused the military-industrial complex of wanting to trigger World War III. Future national security advisor to Trump, Mike Waltz, described Biden's decision as "another step on the escalation ladder," while billionaire Elon Musk, close to the elected president, stated on social media X that "Russia will respond in kind."
However, Trump himself has not made any public statements on the matter in these past few days. This is attributed to Trump wanting to keep his options open for when he officially returns to the presidency, as suggested by Alexander Khara, an expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, in his comments to RBC-Ukraine.
Trump's entourage criticizes Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)
A similar opinion was expressed in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine by Vladimir Fesenko, head of the board at the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta." According to him, Trump's decision to refrain from commenting on this issue is absolutely correct.
"Why take responsibility for actions that have yet to be taken? He will become president in just two months. A lot can change in that time. So why make any statements now or take on any obligations?" Fesenko explained, reminding that after the elections, Trump did not make any statements regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Such behavior from Trump, according to him, contrasts with his actions during the campaign. Now the elected president is cautious about his political statements, maintaining his unpredictability.
"Mike Pompeo, whom Trump did not include in his team, said while in Kyiv that the strategy of uncertainty, where the enemy does not know what you will do, works best, especially in international politics," he added.
Will Trump revoke the permission for strikes deep into Russia?
Trump's entourage seems to be unaware that Biden's decision has tactically benefited Trump, as reported by American agency Bloomberg. Biden not only responded to the escalation of the war initiated by Putin, who has involved North Korean troops, but also provided Trump with additional leverage for upcoming negotiations with Russia.
According to political scientists, Trump may indeed use the issue of permissions for Ukraine's strikes with Western missiles deep into Russia as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow. For instance, as Khara suggests, he might propose a moratorium on such strikes if Russia stops shelling Ukraine's energy infrastructure or ceases missile attacks on Ukraine altogether.
Trump may leverage Ukraine's restrictions in negotiations with Russia (photo: flickr.com/USAASC)
However, as Vladimir Fesenko believes, it is unlikely that immediately after returning to the White House, Trump will unilaterally revoke the previous administration's decision. Primarily because it would not be advantageous for Trump himself. "It would be a sign of weakness," Fesenko explained.
On the contrary, Fesenko suggests that if necessary, particularly if Putin demonstrates an aggressive and uncompromising stance, Trump may increase support for Ukraine to intensify pressure on Moscow and push the Kremlin toward negotiations.
If it turns out that the new U.S. administration does revoke the permission, Ukraine will have to comply with this decision, according to Alexander Khara.
"Firstly, we technically will not be able to do this. Secondly, we do not want to miss the theoretical opportunity that Trump may continue to help us if, for instance, Putin violates agreements," he noted.
However, according to Khara, for now, Ukraine needs to make the most of the existing missiles to address various tactical tasks before Trump’s inauguration and the new administration moves into the White House.
During the preparation of this material, statements from President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, members of the team of elected U.S. President Donald Trump, publications from The New York Times, Bloomberg, and comments from political scientists Vladimir Fesenko and Alexander Khara were utilized.