Slovakia remains firm. Fico demands affordable gas and transit through Ukraine.
The Slovak operator no longer holds onto hopes of resuming the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, yet Fico's government is persistently seeking to continue supplies. How feasible is the resumption of transit, and what options might Ukraine agree to? RBC-Ukraine journalist Yuriy Doshchatov investigated.
The transit of Russian gas to the EU through Ukraine has been halted for over a month and a half. However, some countries are still unwilling to accept the situation and are hoping for a return to the previous supply route. Among them is Slovakia, which is currently actively pursuing this goal.
Hungary is also interested in the gas supply route through Ukraine. However, Budapest has somewhat reduced its activity. The last time Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban publicly mentioned transit was at the end of January. He stated that he wants to "fight back" against Ukraine for the closure of the gas supply route. Yet, Budapest has not taken any action so far. He later threatened that if transit does not resume, Hungary would block the extension of sanctions against Russia in six months.
Consultations on gas transit continue
This week in Brussels, trilateral consultations between the EU, Slovakia, and Ukraine took place at the ministerial level. The discussions included European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson, Slovak Minister of Economy Denis Sakova, and Ukrainian Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko.
The main concern for Ukraine was gas imports. Currently, during the cold weather, Ukraine has to increase its gas purchases in Europe to minimize the use of gas from storage facilities. Recently, imports surged 1.6 times to 25-26 million cubic meters per day. On February 20 and 21, it slightly decreased to 23 and 22 million cubic meters, respectively. Gas is being supplied through Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary.
By mid-February, the underground storage facilities had reached a minimal volume of gas in the country's history. According to European platforms, as of February 18, reserves stood at about 2.2 billion cubic meters, excluding 4.5 billion cubic meters of "buffer" gas that must remain untouched. The storage filling level has dropped to 7.3%. The rate of gas reduction in storage facilities in February is between 0.20-0.26% per day. It is likely that import volumes will need to be increased further, as on February 20, Russian attacks once again damaged gas extraction facilities.
Ukraine needs to secure funding for the purchase of at least 1 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of the year or a commodity grant for the same volume. According to the press service of the Ministry of Energy, the discussions included the "necessity for energy carriers and the issue of importing natural gas from neighboring European countries." The Ministry of Energy has not yet reported on specific agreements regarding this matter.
The second topic raised at Slovakia's initiative concerned the possibility of resuming Russian gas supplies through Ukraine.
According to RBC-Ukraine, the leadership of the European Commission still does not support the resumption of transit as Slovakia desires. "The position of the European Commission remains clear – there are no plans (to seek the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine)," said a source from the publication. The EU does not intend to violate the REPowerEU plan, which envisions a gradual reduction and abandonment of Russian fossil fuels by 2030.
Minister Sakova confirmed that the EC is not accepting Bratislava's proposals. "When asked what immediate solution the EC has regarding the necessary gas for Europe, especially for Central Europe, we have not yet received a concrete answer. The Commission does not share our view that resuming gas transit through Ukraine would solve the aforementioned problems," – she stated after the trilateral meeting.
However, the European Commission acknowledges that measures need to be taken to reduce gas prices. Delivering gas through alternative routes is more expensive than through Ukraine. Therefore, it was decided to create a technical group to find solutions to the pricing issue. "I firmly believe that the European Commission will succeed in adopting a number of measures in the coming weeks that will effectively make energy and gas prices more affordable for industries and households," – stated Sakova.
Slovakia is losing hope
It remains unclear how long the "transit" discussions will continue. The Slovak company SPP, which has a contract with Gazprom Export until 2034, currently does not have high hopes for supplies through Ukraine. "Gazprom Export" has partially resumed gas supplies for SPP through the southern route via the "Turkish Stream" and Hungary to Slovakia.
It is expected that supplies may gradually increase during the spring to a level that will ensure sufficient natural gas for the next period," – SPP informed RBC-Ukraine. They also did not confirm information that appeared in some media in early February regarding the establishment of a subsidiary for organizing the transit of Russian gas.
The myth of Azerbaijani gas
Nevertheless, the resumption of gas transit through Ukraine along the previous route is theoretically possible. However, on the condition that the gas is not Russian but, for example, Azerbaijani. If the EC and Slovakia find a suitable option for such gas supplies, Ukraine would be willing to consider the proposals, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna stated recently. "If there are any appeals to Ukraine as a result of this dialogue, we will respond to them," – she said.
Both Herman Halushchenko and the head of the relevant committee in the Verkhovna Rada, Andriy Gerus, spoke about the theoretical possibility of resuming transit, but only not with Russian gas. "I believe that if this (transit - ed.) does not increase the balance of Russian gas exports, then such an option can be discussed. That is, if it does not increase Russia's gas revenues," - Gerus stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
The topic of purchasing and transiting Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine has been discussed for about a year, but no results have emerged so far. There are significant doubts that Baku has available gas volumes for Slovakia. Many experts suggest that gas for transit will be purchased in Russia. According to sources in the Ukrainian government, Baku assures that they have free gas available. However, in any case, no agreements have been reached regarding its possible procurement for supply through Ukraine.
Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, believes that such agreements for the transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine cannot exist. Firstly, he is convinced that Baku does not have free gas for increased exports. "This is all a myth. There is currently no Azerbaijani gas. It may appear in a few years, but it will be just a couple of billion cubic meters. And their contracts are already scheduled until 2040," – he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine. "From the information I have, energy companies in Slovakia and the government are well aware that there is no domestic gas for them in Azerbaijan," – noted Omelchenko.
Secondly, even if we assume that such gas exists, Russia will not allow its transit through its territory. "There are no free resources for transit, except for Russian gas. Neither Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, nor Kazakhstan have them. And if there are any, Russia will not allow it due to its energy strategy of a single export channel through Gazprom," – emphasized the expert.
In Russia, they do not allow even their own companies to use the "pipeline"; only Gazprom has the right to do so. "If they do not allow their own, should we hope that they will let competitors through?" – the expert poses a rhetorical question.
In Slovakia, there is hope that together with the European Commission, they will find some solution soon to reduce gas prices. "We called on the EC to revise the rules for filling storage facilities. EU countries should have clear rules regarding which country purchases gas, when, and in what volume," – stated Sakova.
After the heating season ends, when the demand for gas decreases and energy resource prices drop, the intensity surrounding the transit topic will somewhat diminish. However, if a tool to reduce gas prices is not found for Slovakia by summer, Bratislava, along with Budapest, is likely to block the next extension of EU sanctions against Russia. After all, neither Slovakia nor Hungary has completely abandoned the desire to receive Russian gas through Ukraine. Bratislava has not renounced its threats to cut off gas imports for Ukraine if its arguments are not accepted.