Sleeping giant: Why is Europe's defense lagging behind, and how significant is this issue for Ukraine?
Can the European Union replace American arms supplies to Ukraine, why is its production growing so slowly in Europe, and what role might Ukraine play in the European defense industry – in an article by RBK-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.
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After three years of significant conflict, and despite Herculean efforts to develop its own defense industry, Ukraine remains critically dependent on arms supplies from abroad.
"Today, 33-34% of all weapons in Ukraine are domestically produced, out of 100% of what we need annually. And this is a serious increase, as it was less than 10... About 30% comes from Europe. And more than 30%, around 40% – from the United States," noted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on January 15.
This dependency may become critical for Ukraine in the near future – during negotiations to end the war, if the new American president, Donald Trump, decides to exert excessive pressure not only on Moscow but also on Kyiv. Not to mention that Trump's team is generally skeptical about providing Ukraine with arms.
And this issue is not only pertinent to our country. As reported by RBK-Ukraine, a number of countries do not rule out a direct Russian attack on European NATO members within a few years.
As Trump continually states, European countries need to balance trade with the USA, or he will impose trade tariffs. Furthermore, within NATO, European alliance members need to significantly increase defense spending – to 5% of GDP. If this does not happen, the US leader has threatened not to defend Europe in the event of Russian aggression. However, even with the unlikelihood of such a scenario, the US's own weapon stockpiles are not limitless; they need to replenish their reserves – in exchange for the arms that were sent to Ukraine during Biden's presidency.
Thus, the European defense industry needs to, on one hand, rearm Europe itself and replenish arsenals, while on the other – continue supplying arms to Ukraine. On February 8, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Europe needs a surge in defense.
"The new political cycle marks the beginning of a new era in European defense. After three years of Putin's war, we have increased our military production, but it is not enough. We must do more," – she stated at a press conference in Poland.
The goals are ambitious and clear, but achieving them is not so easy.
Limited Capacities
According to Zelensky, Ukraine's European partners could increase their own arms production by two to three times, but they are not doing so yet.
Only 20-25% of the arms Ukraine receives from the European Union are produced within the EU countries themselves. The rest is purchased abroad. These figures were announced by the new European Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrius Kubilius, in December last year.
The current capabilities of the European defense industry are frankly surprising – and certainly not in a positive sense. Here are a few illustrative examples regarding the capabilities of the European defense sector.
For instance, Germany, the most powerful economy in Europe, can produce only 40-50 of the latest modified "Leopard" tanks – 2A8, per year, noted Ralph Ketzel, managing director of KMW, the manufacturer of the Leopards, in an interview with ARD. According to him, in the early 90s, the company had the capacity to produce one tank per day (approximately 365 per year). At the same time, there is no shortage of buyers for German tanks. In particular, Hungary and Norway have ordered several dozen vehicles. But production capacities are insufficient. Consequently, it takes around two years from ordering to delivering one tank.
As of spring 2024, France produced six Caesar self-propelled howitzers per month. In November of the same year, the country's Ministry of Defense announced an increase in production to 12 units per month – a total of 144 per year. These are official figures from the Danish Ministry of Defense, which ordered them for Ukraine. The production cycle for one howitzer was reduced by half, but it still takes 15 months.
However, perhaps the most telling case is the promised one million 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine, which were expected to be delivered by March 2024. The ammunition eventually arrived – but only in November.
"When we promised to reach the level of one million shells per year by spring – we did not know the actual production capacity, and it was not as large as we thought. Now we already have this production capacity," – explained the EU's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, in an interview with European Pravda last November.
It is expected that in 2025, approximately 2 million shells will be produced in EU countries, which does not even cover Ukraine's needs, let alone replenish arsenals in Europe itself.
For Ukraine, the situation is complicated by the fact that weapons cannot be purchased directly from the EU budget or invested in their production outside the European Union, which could have been a temporary solution until new production facilities emerge within the EU. This is only possible through the separate "European Peace Fund" or through frozen Russian assets. However, there are not many such funds. According to Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, Ukraine is expected to receive around 30 billion euros from the EU in 2025, and it will decide how much of that to allocate for arms purchases.
European Defense Industry and the USA – Is there a Risk of Blockage?
The defense industry in Europe is generally quite self-sufficient, although the degree of autonomy varies from country to country, said Taras Yemchura, head of the "Defense Policy" sector at the Office of Efficient Regulation BRDO, in an interview with RBK-Ukraine.
"France has historically sought strategic independence and tried to produce the entire spectrum of weapons itself, however, this approach is extremely costly. Most other European countries rely on military-technical cooperation, as very few types of weapons can be developed by a single country alone," – said Yemchura.
According to him, even the USA involved more than 20 countries in the F-35 fighter project. Such developments are too expensive even for the richest country in the world.
"Therefore, the defense industry of NATO countries, including the USA, is an interdependent ecosystem, and, in my opinion, this cooperation will continue in the future," – noted the expert.
At the same time, for American arms manufacturers, Europe is a powerful market. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2019 to 2023, approximately 55% of all European arms imports came from the USA – primarily combat aircraft, helicopters, and air defense systems.
According to politician and extraordinary ambassador Roman Bessmertny, the EU has sufficient opportunities to negotiate with the US president on arms and other aspects of bilateral trade through concessions in several areas.
"Resolving the balance issue has many methods. Including changing the consumption structure, appropriate steps by the European Central Bank, and the US Federal Reserve System. This is not a reason for the noise raised by Donald Trump, but it is in his style," – said Bessmertny in an interview with the YouTube channel RBK-Ukraine.
Why Does Europe Increase Arms Production So Slowly?
The defense industry in the European Union has several outdated issues. For a long time, EU countries reduced defense spending, especially during the decade from 2008 to 2018.
"If you compare EU defense spending with that of the USA or China, it is indeed noticeable that Europe has been less willing to invest in its own defense for a long time," – said Yemchura to the