The U.S. exerts pressure while Ukraine resists. Will there be mobilization starting at 18, and is it truly beneficial?

For several months now, the topic of lowering the conscription age in Ukraine has been actively discussed in public forums. Recently, the dialogue between Washington and Kyiv has become more transparent. Why are the U.S. pushing this issue, and what are the thoughts on it in Ukraine? This is explored in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Yulia Akimova.

The full-scale war between Ukraine and the Russian aggressor has been ongoing for nearly three years. During this time, Russia has reportedly lost around 650,000 soldiers, both killed and wounded. In Ukraine, approximately 43,000 military personnel have died on the front lines, and around 370,000 have been injured, as stated by President Volodymyr Zelensky in early December.

As the third year of military operations draws to a close, fighting has intensified—Russia is breaking through the front lines in an attempt to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible. According to reports from Ukraine's General Staff, the Russian army loses about a thousand soldiers each day, but this does not seem to deter the Kremlin. Moscow continues to employ the long-standing tactic of "human waves," disregarding losses.

Ukraine is facing difficulties—Kyiv is reluctant to adopt the same methods, aiming to conduct the war according to modern standards, as much as possible, which means fighting with technology rather than manpower. For this, the military requires a substantial amount of weaponry, which Ukrainian authorities continually request from their Western partners. Additionally, the slow pace of mobilization is evident—there is a shortage of troops, and those on the front lines complain about the infrequency of rotations and the lack of replacements.

Western allies, while supplying the Ukrainian army with moderate packages of arms, are subtly raising the topics of negotiations, compromises, and security guarantees. Recently, Western officials have also begun to gently encourage Kyiv to lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 years.

So far, these statements have been framed as suggestions, with partners assuring that the final decision rests with Ukraine. However, sources within RBC-Ukraine believe that soon, lowering the conscription age may become one of the conditions for receiving substantial assistance.

Pressure from the U.S. and Kyiv's Response

The latest wave of mobilization has faced a crisis since the summer of 2023. Lines at military recruitment offices have dwindled, and it suddenly became clear that military commissariats lack up-to-date data on millions of conscripts. Many were slow to update their information. Raids in cities yielded results, but minimal ones. Moreover, various scandals—aggressive behavior from recruitment officers and corruption within military offices—have affected the overall perception of mobilization.

This led to Zelensky's decision to dismiss all regional heads of military recruitment offices, which was received with mixed feelings and clearly impacted the pace of mobilization. Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny later stated that the previous recruiters were professionals.

Challenges in recruiting personnel for the army have sparked criticism from the military themselves, who have voiced concerns about the quality of new arrivals. Over time, the topic of mobilization has become so toxic in media discourse that neither the General Staff nor the government wanted to be associated with it, refusing to comment.

Simultaneously, the situation at the front has worsened. The anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive did not succeed, and the Russians have been betting on a human resource they can afford to expend on a massive scale. In Ukraine, mobilization continues, but its results still do not meet the military's expectations. To increase the number of potential conscripts, the Verkhovna Rada lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 years in April 2024.

It was first reported in October that Western partners were urging Kyiv to lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 years, as stated by adviser to the President's Office Serhiy Leshchenko. He noted that this issue is being actively pushed by the U.S., including both Democrats and Republicans. Their main argument referenced that during the Vietnam War, Americans were drafted into the army starting at 19 years old.

Ukrainian soldiers at the train station in Kyiv (photo: Getty Images)

Days later, Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov commented on the matter. He confirmed that allies are raising the issue of lowering the conscription age but assured that the Ukrainian government would not make that decision.

"We always want to give a choice to individuals. As we say now, we are operating according to all legislative norms. The legislation clearly states—25 and older. If anyone wishes to come and serve their people, we are always glad," Umerov stated at a briefing on October 18.

On the same day, Zelensky declared that there are no plans to lower the conscription age, and those who wish to join the Armed Forces before reaching 25 can sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense.

It cannot be said that society, military personnel, and politicians have divided into two camps. On the contrary, there are far more opponents of lowering the conscription age than supporters. Among the latter is Member of Parliament and active military officer Roman Kostenko, who stated in media comments that the army is lacking young individuals. Bloomberg reported that the average age of Ukrainian soldiers is around 40 years.

It is worth noting that among those military personnel willing to comment on this issue, Kostenko's opinion is singular. The majority of soldiers oppose lowering the age, arguing that 18-year-olds may not be prepared for the front lines. For example, soldier Elena Ryzh from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade believes that very few 18-year-olds can endure what happens on the battlefield.

"Among my comrades, there are people aged 19-20, yes. But we are all very different in our inner world, upbringing, and character. Some are internally and psychologically ready, while others are not yet prepared for this. And simply filling our military ranks with children because some foreign partners want it—this is unacceptable to me. I believe it will not be effective," says Elena Ryzh in her comments to RBC-Ukraine.

In a similar vein, Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier Artem Chapay expressed his views. He stated that 18-year-olds are not ready for war and, despite his desire for it to end, the conscription age should not be lowered.

"Human males under 25 are late adolescents; their brain's inhibitory centers are still underdeveloped. They haven't lived enough. Conscription at 18 in previous wars was a crime. These are children, so they don't think about themselves. The most absurd situation is in the U.S., where you can't legally drink until 21, yet they could be drafted for war," Chapay wrote on Facebook.

In November, the topic of lowering the conscription age arose again. This time, the Associated Press reported, citing an American official, that the Biden administration is again urging Kyiv to lower the conscription age. Allegedly, this is required by the current situation at the front. Moreover, American allies hinted that Biden's time in the White House is running out, so if Ukraine quickly lowers the conscription age, the current administration will have time to allocate more funds.

0Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden at the White House (photo: Getty Images)

"Time is running out, and the Biden administration emphasizes that Ukraine has the necessary weapons, and now it must quickly increase its troop numbers if it intends to continue fighting Russia," the publication notes.

Zelensky responded again to this. On November 19, during the presentation of the resilience plan in the Verkhovna Rada, he reiterated that no one intends to lower the conscription age. However, those under 25 will be offered "motivation packages" if they sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense.

In early December, the Washington Post touched upon the topic of lowering the conscription age, noting that the Biden administration is "disappointed" with the mobilization efforts in Ukraine in general. The article discusses "emergency" negotiations with Kyiv to allocate funds while expecting Zelensky to lower the conscription age. On December 4, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken indirectly commented on the issue, essentially confirming that discussions are indeed taking place. During another briefing, he stated that Ukraine must make "difficult but necessary decisions" regarding mobilization.

On December 10, the U.S. openly declared that they are ready to equip newly arrived soldiers if Kyiv mobilizes them. "We have made it clear that if they provide additional forces to participate in the fighting, we and our allies will be ready to equip and train those forces," said U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller during a briefing.

The Ukrainian side continued to actively resist. Zelensky stated that Kyiv would not compensate for the lack of weapons with the youth of soldiers. A week after Miller's statement, the phrase that the U.S. is shirking responsibility by suggesting lowering the conscription age was voiced publicly for the first time in Ukraine. This was said by Vice Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishina, who added that the issue of equipping soldiers should not be framed in this way—they should already be provided for according to agreements.