Rain and drought: an expert from Perm Polytechnic shares insights on what summer 2025 will be like.

What Influences Heat and Weather?

Heat is distributed unevenly across our planet, with the tilt of the Earth's axis playing a crucial role. If we imagine the axis becoming perpendicular, seasonal changes (the four seasons) would disappear, resulting in a more uniform climate. A change in the angle of tilt would also impact the distribution of natural zones—from the Arctic tundras to tropical forests—completely altering the face of the Earth.

— The greatest influx of heat is observed in the equatorial zone, where sunlight strikes this part of our planet at a more direct angle throughout the year. In the polar regions, it is minimal. During the polar night, the radiation balance—simply put, the difference between incoming and outgoing heat—can even be negative. For humans, this means a complete absence of heat from the Sun coming from outer space, explains Maxim Simakin, an employee of Perm Polytechnic, an expert in oceanology, and a member of the Russian Geographical Society.

Another phenomenon that affects weather conditions is cyclones and anticyclones. These are atmospheric vortices with differing pressures that form when air masses collide and are influenced by the Earth's rotation.

A cyclone, derived from the Greek word kyklos meaning "circling" or "ring of a snake," is an atmospheric vortex with a low-pressure center that acts like a funnel pulling in air. Cyclones rotate counterclockwise, with air currents moving from the periphery to the center. Their speeds range from 20 km/h to 80 km/h, depending on the stage of development and intensity of air flows, with diameters spanning hundreds of kilometers. This natural phenomenon causes overcast, changeable weather with heavy precipitation and winds. In summer, it brings cooling, dense low clouds, and thunderstorms. In winter, conversely, it causes warming, but still with precipitation and cloudiness. In its wake, a cooling effect will be observed due to the influx of air from more northern latitudes.

An anticyclone is an atmospheric vortex with a high-pressure area. It occupies much larger spatial scales, features low displacement speeds, and is characterized by stable air masses. It is marked by light winds, and there are virtually none in the center of the vortex. In summer, an anticyclone brings stable, dry, and sunny weather, while in winter it leads to frosts.

Summer 2024: The Hottest in Recorded History

Compared to 2023, temperatures in 2024 rose by 0.1 degrees. Last year was the hottest on record since observations began in 1850. Trends indicate that such climatic changes are likely to persist in the future.

— There are many factors that contributed to 2024 being one of the hottest years. Throughout July, a positive anomaly in sea surface temperatures was recorded in the North Atlantic. The average temperature in the North Atlantic in July is about 16.5 degrees Celsius, with average deviations of 3-4 degrees above normal. Europe and the western part of Russia were under the influence of a long-lived Azores anticyclone—this is a persistent atmospheric pressure system over the tropical and subtropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean, primarily expressed in the summer, reports an expert from PNIPU.

Only by the end of the month did cooler air arrive in the European part of our country, which persisted throughout the first half of August. In the north, the first frosts were even recorded. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remained anomalously warm throughout this period. A similar situation occurred in the Pacific Ocean: in all seas except the Bering Sea, positive anomalies in surface temperatures were maintained throughout August.

Causes of Global Warming

— Undoubtedly, human anthropogenic activity affects the environment, particularly climate change. However, we cannot abandon the benefits of civilization. Our task is, on one hand, to reduce our impact on the ecological situation by implementing measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and on the other hand, to adapt to changing conditions, which means undertaking measures to mitigate climate risks affecting public health and infrastructure, explains Ekaterina Belik, an associate professor in the Department of Environmental Protection.

Astronomical, geophysical, and internal factors influence the average temperature on the planet and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in any given year.

— It can be said that solar activity, global ocean temperatures, and volcanic eruptions affect the climate. The Sun heats our planet, water stores heat and releases it, helping to form synoptic vortices. Volcanoes alter the transparency of our atmosphere, which affects the quality and quantity of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. In 2024, eruptions were observed in Kamchatka, Hawaii, and Iceland. Fortunately, they were not as powerful as, for example, the eruption of Mount Tambora on the Indonesian island. All of this has occurred before, is happening now, and will continue after us. Therefore, in my view, it is incorrect to state that only humans are responsible for the rise in temperature on the planet. It is essential to monitor anthropogenic impacts on the climate; however, to understand the complete picture, all factors influencing temperature changes must be considered, says Maxim Simakin.

Forecast for Winter 2025

— The unusually mild winter in Russia this year is primarily explained by the zonal circulation of the atmosphere. Warm air flows carried by cyclones from the North Atlantic create conditions for low cloud cover and high humidity, disrupting the usual winter weather patterns, notes Maxim Simakin, an employee of Perm Polytechnic, an expert in oceanology, and a member of the Russian Geographical Society.

Cold waves may still sweep over the European part of Russia and the Urals, potentially occurring as early as January. Meanwhile, most regions are experiencing the benefits of a warm winter, with temperatures in Yakutsk reaching -38 degrees, highlighting the diversity of climatic conditions.

Should Russians Expect an Early Spring in 2025?

In most regions of our country, snowmelt typically concludes by mid-April. Considering the current conditions, namely the overall elevated temperature background and the absence of precipitation deficits, at least in the Urals and Western Siberia, it can be predicted that snowmelt will conclude around the same time. In some areas, snow accumulation has reached 160% of the norm. In other words, certain regions, including the Perm region, Sverdlovsk region, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, have already met their precipitation targets.

— The reliability of forecasts for several months ahead is low, so it is difficult to definitively say that this year will see an early spring. According to the Hydrometeorological Center, a temperature regime within the climatic norm is expected in March, while positive deviations in average monthly air temperatures are forecasted for most of the Northwestern and Siberian federal districts, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), and the southern part of the Far Eastern federal district, says Maxim Simakin.

Summer 2025 Will Bring Downpours, Windfalls, Floods, and Droughts

It is often challenging for individuals to notice climatic differences between individual years, which makes changes more obvious when comparing decades. For instance, the difference between the summers of 2014 and 2024 across Russia reveals clear trends. There is an increase not only in the frequency but also in the intensity of extreme and hazardous weather phenomena, which are now manifesting not only in the south of the country but also in other regions. These include windfalls, hurricanes, and heavy rainfall. At the same time, some areas are experiencing trends toward droughts, creating additional challenges for agriculture and other sectors of the economy. For example, soil drought persisted in Crimea, Rostov, Volgograd, and Astrakhan regions.

— The summer of 2024 brought anomalous weather conditions to many parts of Russia. In the Southern Urals, heavy rainfall caused a sharp rise in river levels, reaching springtime indicators, leading to localized flooding. Meanwhile, in the Cherdyn district (Perm region), strong squalls toppled trees for several days, leaving entire villages without electricity. These examples demonstrate that weather phenomena are becoming increasingly diverse and unpredictable, so one should be prepared for unusual weather events in 2025, reports Maxim Simakin, an employee of Perm Polytechnic, an expert in oceanology, and a member of the Russian Geographical Society.

In the upcoming year, we should also be ready for extreme weather conditions: heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds, considering the trends of increasing occurrences of such phenomena. Drought is expected in the southern regions.

What About the Perm Region?

— Together with scientists from the Perm GIS Center, we developed a regional adaptation plan for climate change. Based on long-term observations, we made the following forecasts for the Perm region: an increase in the average annual air temperature by 2-3 °C. Northern and southern regions will suffer from climate change. The Perm region is less exposed to climatic risks; however, implementing adaptation measures now will yield benefits not only economically, says Ekaterina Belik, an associate professor in the Department of Environmental Protection.