Not just due to shelling. When can power outages occur in Ukraine, and is it possible to prevent them?

In Ukraine, for the first time in the last two months, electricity supply restrictions had to be reintroduced. Currently, this is only for the industrial sector. What has led to this necessity and does it mean that outages will continue? – investigated RBC-Ukraine's special correspondent Yuriy Doshchatov.

The temperature in Ukraine is gradually dropping. Meteorologists are already predicting slight frosts by the end of the second decade of November. Some regions have experienced snowfall. Under these conditions, the likelihood of significant energy supply issues is increasing.

For exactly two months, Ukraine lived almost without scheduled power outages. The last time schedules were implemented was on September 12. However, in recent days, in some regions, power outages have been carried out preventively during air raid alerts, particularly if there is a threat of missile attacks. This is necessary to mitigate the negative impacts on equipment in case a missile strikes a facility.

Why power outages have resumed

However, on November 13, the need to limit electricity supply arose again. This was not due to the threat of attacks but rather a result of insufficient generation capacity.

Currently, the restrictions only affect businesses and industrial enterprises. According to "Ukrenergo," the reason is a short-term decrease in maneuverable generation capacity and a significant reduction in electricity import volumes.

According to sources from the publication, some thermal generation facilities required emergency repairs, which are not directly related to attacks by the Russians. Electricity imports and solar generation have dropped to a minimum.

The restrictions were lifted by the evening of November 13. However, the likelihood of a similar situation recurring is quite high, as consumption is nearly on par with generation. Therefore, any disruptions in electricity production could significantly impact consumers.

Repair of energy equipment in Ukraine (photo: Getty Images)

"Currently, the balance in the system is stable. The amount produced matches the amount consumed. But this balance depends on the availability or lack of generation capacity. If, for some reason, thermal generation is insufficient, it is compensated by solar energy or imports. However, we cannot rely on solar energy right now, which means the main compensator is imports," noted Gennady Ryabtsev, director of the "Psychea" center, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

However, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko believes it is too early to panic and discuss the return of regular power outages. There are no grounds for this. The situation that arose on Wednesday, November 13, is temporary, he emphasized. "Nothing dramatic has happened in the system. All this hype and cries that everything has returned (to outages being regular) – that’s false," – Halushchenko stated.

He also confirmed that emergency outages occurred at thermal generation facilities due to malfunctions. "Generation facilities that have been restored after such massive attacks can fail. And that has happened," the minister said.

He also specified that imports accounted for about 6% of the potentially possible volume. "It is almost non-existent. It was only 100 MW (with a potential of 1.7 GW – ed.)," Halushchenko stated.

What will happen with electricity going forward

Malfunctions, or as they are now called in the Ministry of Energy and also in "Ukrenergo", "remarks," at energy facilities have already occurred multiple times.

In September, they occurred at the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant, leading to a reduction in generation at one of the plant's units. This negatively affected the level of consumer outages.

At the end of October, the same plant reportedly encountered problems again. However, the decrease in generation went largely unnoticed by consumers, as the deficit was covered by emergency imports.

Now, if new "remarks" arise regarding the operation of generation facilities, imports will not provide relief. Firstly, Europe is also experiencing colder weather and increased electricity consumption. The available resources are becoming significantly scarcer. Secondly, electricity prices in Ukraine remain lower than in Europe, as they are capped by price limits. The National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Utilities (NERC) planned in November to raise the level of price caps to increase the possibility of imports, but no decision has been made yet.

Ryabtsev believes that without raising the price caps or completely removing them, imports are unlikely to increase significantly. And the effect of increasing import capacity will not be realized.

Since December, Ukraine has increased the import limit from 1.7 to 2.1 GW. However, even now, existing capabilities are not being utilized due to low prices in Ukraine.

Electricity prices in Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania

Screenshot: oree.com.ua (click on the image to enlarge)

Technical capabilities for imports have been increased, but industry is not taking it on as it is expensive. "Businesses expect to be provided with electricity within Ukraine under any conditions. But that’s not how it works, as there may be days when there is none available in the balance for them, as happened on November 13," Ryabtsev believes.

Currently, there are no grounds to expect severe problems with energy supply, unless there are significant damages to the generation or transmission system due to attacks. Light frosts can be survived without turmoil. This is also confirmed by sources from the government and experts.

"From what I have access to in terms of information, and based on my understanding of the energy system, we can expect to get through to (-)5 degrees without significant outages. Beyond that, outages will almost certainly be necessary, but they will be predictable, according to schedules," predicted Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

In any case, it is not advisable to relax even in the absence of frosts. Another factor that may affect energy supply is the "remarks," or rather, malfunctions that may arise in the operation of, in particular, generation facilities.

According to the publication's information, such "remarks" recently occurred at one of the large power plants. Addressing them will require some reduction in generation soon. The work is planned to be carried out in such a way as to minimize the negative consequences for electricity consumers.