Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and a new threat in the South? What’s happening and what can we expect on the front lines?

The most active fronts in recent weeks have been Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. How they are interconnected, what is happening on the front lines, and what the occupiers' plans are – this is covered by military-political observer Ulyana Bespalko from RBC-Ukraine.

During the past week, the Russians managed to occupy nearly the largest area of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of this year. The epicenter of the fiercest battles is in the southern part of Donetsk region. There is no talk of a collapse of the Ukrainian front yet; moreover, the situation is not equally critical across all sections.

However, on several fronts – Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar – the enemy's creeping advance continues unabated. Additionally, there is a threat that the adversary may intensify its actions in another relatively stable area.

Northeast

Since mid-October, there have been no significant changes in the Kursk operational zone. Within its counteroffensive, the enemy has managed to push our units from the Korenevo and Snahosty districts towards Novoiivankivka. Our military is attempting counterattacks there. Meanwhile, the Russians aim to push Ukrainian units east of Suja. After liberating the village of Borky, the enemy was able to enter Russka Konopelka but was unsuccessful in their attempts to capture Plekhovo.

Kursk bridgehead and Kupiansk direction (map: DeepState)

It seems that the enemy's plan is to squeeze the Ukrainian Armed Forces' bridgehead from various sides towards the Suja - Sumy road. They are still far from this goal – the Russians' counteroffensive is progressing quite slowly. It appears to be a deliberate strategy: for faster advancement, Moscow needs to reallocate additional troops from other fronts, thereby sacrificing the pace of their advance in those areas, which they are evidently unwilling to do.

In the Kharkiv direction near Liptsy and Vovchansk, the situation also remains unchanged. While in the area of Kupiansk, the occupiers have managed to accomplish their intermediate goal, which they have fought for over a year – to reach the Oskol River. After the enemy entered the village of Kruglyakovka, our bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskol has been split into two parts. This also complicates the situation in Borova, as the enemy has effectively cut off the supply route to it, which ran along the Oskol from the eastern part of Kupiansk. The Russians are now trying to break through to Kupiansk itself from the direction of Synykovka.

Trying to understand the logic behind the enemy's actions, the occupation of Kharkiv or Kupiansk itself is not currently necessary for them. They might not even plan to cross the Oskol, where almost all crossings have been destroyed. Instead, they may move south. The bridgehead on the left bank of the river is essential for the Russians to occupy the northern part of Donetsk region. In particular – Lyman, Siversk, and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The Oskol River could protect them from a flank attack from the west by Ukrainian forces. It is very likely that we should expect increased enemy activity in the Lyman and Siversk directions in the future.

Northern part of Donbas

In the area of Chasiv Yar, there is a trend of deteriorating conditions. Within the city, the enemy's advance has long been hindered by the Seversky Donets - Donbas canal, which divides it into a western and a smaller eastern part from north to south.

However, the Russians have adopted their traditional tactic – encircling cities from multiple sides to minimize urban combat and force our military to retreat under the threat of encirclement. In mid-October, the enemy managed to advance north of the city, where they partially got a foothold in the Oktyabrsky microdistrict, located on the western bank of the canal.

Simultaneously, the enemy broke through the canal to the south of the city – where the waterway crosses the T0405 (N-32) highway, and they are trying to move along this road. If control over Chasiv Yar is lost, the next target for the occupiers in this direction will be the city of Konstantynivka, which also lies on the N-32 and is an important logistics hub for our forces in Donetsk region.

3Chasiv Yar and Toretsk area (map: DeepState)

However, the active advance of the Russians here in the south is currently hindered by our military's continued hold on the area around Klishchiyivka – creating a threat of flank attacks for the enemy.

The enemy's advance along the N-32 increases the threat to the entire Toretsk defense area. In recent days, Ukrainian units have managed to restore positions within Toretsk after the enemy managed to break through in the center. The Russians have been pushed back to the eastern part of the central district of the city. It is likely that if we lose control over this city, the occupiers will also develop their advance towards Konstantynivka.

Southern part of Donetsk region and a new threat

In the near future, the occupiers may restore intense offensives towards Pokrovsk. They have once again become active on the segment from Novohrodivka to Hrodivka, east of the city – likely to develop their advance toward Myrnohrad.

The enemy has evidently managed to fully occupy the city of Selydove in the Pokrovsk direction, creating a threat of encirclement for our troops. After its occupation, the Russians will advance towards Pokrovsk itself – more precisely, to encircle it from the south.

The loss of control over Selydove has simultaneously worsened the situation for our units defending to the south – north of the Kurakhove reservoir. The occupiers are trying to push Ukrainian forces out of there to create conditions for an offensive on Kurakhove – another logistics center for our forces in the south. There is a high likelihood that our units will indeed have to withdraw at least behind the line of Izmailivka - Kurakhovka - Oстровcкое to avoid encirclement. The enemy has also approached Kurakhove closely from the east, from the direction of Maksymilianivka.

Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions (map: DeepState)

The situation for this city has worsened due to the fall of Vuhledar, as now the occupiers will push towards Kurakhove not only from the north and east but also from the south – from a number of villages along the segment Shakhtarske - Yekaterynivka. All these settlements are located north of Vuhledar at a distance of up to 10 kilometers – this is the depth the enemy has managed to advance after the city's occupation in early October. The loss of Kurakhove may jeopardize the neighboring direction in the southern part of Donetsk region – the area of Velyka Novosilka.

However, in the near future, another threat may arise in the south. Several sources in military and political circles fear that the occupiers may begin offensive actions within Zaporizhzhia region. Theoretical directions of attack include Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Kamyanske, where enemy sabotage-reconnaissance groups have recently intensified their activities. The possible goal for the Russians is to attempt to advance at least 30 kilometers deep to get closer to Zaporizhzhia and push our troops further away from Enerhodar and the ZNPP, and then start negotiations from a position of ultimatum. Our military is preparing to counter such a scenario.

***

Currently, Ukraine is in perhaps the most critical period of the war. Against the backdrop of fatigue or concerns among partners about their own problems, no one can help us better than we can help ourselves. Right now, the Russians are fighting at the peak of their combat capability. Their further advancement or halt primarily depends on whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine can address the issues that hinder not just stopping the aggressor, but also conducting an effective defense. This includes demotivation and lack of personnel, inadequate coordination between units and fortification building, as well as occasionally ineffective command at lower and middle levels.