In Trump's Shadow: What to Expect from the First G20 Summit After the US Elections.

What can Ukraine expect from the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro? Can Brazil and China utilize the platform for their own "peace plan," and will the Russian dictator attend the meeting? This is covered in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Dmitry Levitsky.

On Monday, November 18, the summit of the so-called "Group of Twenty" (G20) will kick off in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, marking the second time Ukraine has not been invited during the ongoing full-scale war. Notably, the second day of the summit coincides with a symbolic date for Ukraine – the 1000th day of resistance.

"It would be appropriate to have the issue of Russian aggression against Ukraine addressed at the G20 summit, allowing the President of Ukraine to participate. This would bring us closer to peace and help determine the date and location for the second World Summit. We believe that the G20's disregard for this symbolic date would showcase weakness and a lack of willingness to tackle global issues," stated Foreign Minister Andrey Sibiga.

The "Group of Twenty" was established in 1999 as an intergovernmental forum to respond to economic crises. It consists of 19 of the world's largest economies and the European Union, with the African Union joining the group this year.

While G20 member countries account for up to 80% of global trade and encompass two-thirds of the world's population, the group's summits do not result in any binding decisions. In general, G20 summits serve as platforms for discussions among the "greats of this world" regarding pressing global issues, and thus, the question of the Russian war against Ukraine is likely to be a focal point at the Rio meeting.

Moreover, the summit in Rio follows the U.S. presidential elections, in which Republican Donald Trump emerged victorious. This will undoubtedly catch the attention of G20 leaders.

Will Russia attend the G20 summit?

Russia, a member of the "Group of Twenty," will be represented at the summit in Rio, but not at the highest level. Although Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was invited by Brazilian President Lula da Silva, he has decided not to attend the meeting. Instead, Sergey Lavrov, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, will represent Russia.

The reason for Putin's refusal is the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. This warrant stipulates that any country that has ratified the Rome Statute must arrest Putin if he sets foot on its territory. Brazil is one such country.

Putin has decided not to attend the G20 summit in Brazil (photo: Getty Images)

Even though Mongolia, which has also ratified the Rome Statute, previously set a precedent by not arresting Putin during his visit, the dictator chose to "not politicize" or "disrupt" the summit by declining to participate.

This will be the third G20 meeting that Putin has missed since the onset of the large-scale war, with all three summits occurring in countries considered friendly to Russia and Putin himself.

Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine?

At the G20 summit held in Indonesia in 2022, Zelensky presented the leaders of the "twenty" with Ukraine's peace formula, which Kyiv views as the only viable platform for ending the war and achieving a fair peace with Russia.

However, this year's "Group of Twenty" meeting may serve as a platform for a different "peace formula" – the Chinese-Brazilian initiative "Friends of Peace."

In September, it became known that China and Brazil had developed their own "peace plan," which effectively serves as an alternative to the Ukrainian peace formula, proposing not to end the war but to freeze it indefinitely, allowing Russia to retain the occupied territories.

Ukraine has not welcomed such an initiative. In particular, President Zelensky has sharply criticized the Chinese-Brazilian plan. As he stated, those proposing such "peace plans" ignore reality and aid Putin in gaining "political space to continue aggression."

Additionally, early in November, there were reports in the media about Chancellor Scholz's intentions to create a "contact group" with China, Brazil, and India to conduct peace negotiations with the Russian Federation. The recent conversation between the German Chancellor and Putin, which was the first in nearly two years and included discussions about peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, only reinforces the credibility of such reports. The G20 summit in Rio could become the very venue where this issue may be discussed, at least behind closed doors.

China and Brazil initiated their own "peace plan" for Ukraine (photo: flickr.com/palaciodoplanalto)

However, even if Scholz decides to pursue any such initiatives, it is unlikely to be a long-term project, given the imminent snap elections in Germany, after which he is unlikely to retain his position as Chancellor. His successor may not necessarily align with his stance.

Nevertheless, Kyiv hopes that partners will not discuss any plans or agreements behind Ukraine's back, as Minister Sibiga stated last week.

"We expect that any forum or meeting will bring us closer to a fair peace for Ukraine based on the principle of 'nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.' We will never accept any initiative developed without Ukraine," he said.

Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping and more: What else to expect at the G20 summit

The G20 summit in Rio will be Joe Biden's last as President of the United States. Therefore, the leaders of the "twenty" will have one last opportunity to discuss urgent issues face-to-face with him, as a new leader will take over the White House in January.

In particular, it is expected that Biden will meet for the last time with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit. Although they already held bilateral talks over the weekend during the APEC leaders' meeting in Peru, discussing, among other topics, the involvement of North Korea in Russia's war against Ukraine.

The G20 summit in Brazil is the first major international meeting after Trump's victory (photo: Getty Images)

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also likely to seize the opportunity to meet with Biden. As reported by The Telegraph, the meeting may discuss the allocation of $20 billion to Ukraine by the U.S. from frozen Russian assets before Trump's inauguration.

However, as Alexander Khara, an expert on foreign and security policy, commented to RBC-Ukraine, it is unlikely that Ukraine should expect any concrete outcomes from the G20 summit in Rio.

At most, the leaders of the "twenty" may limit themselves to some statements regarding the war and Ukraine. But, as demonstrated by the two previous G20 summits, it is unlikely that there will be condemnation of Russia in the final communiqué.

"Everyone is waiting for Trump. What he will do regarding Ukraine, Russia. And, of course, what he will do regarding China. If Trump wants to end the war, he will certainly need China's support. And this could be a trump card for Beijing," Khara noted.

Moreover, the expert believes it is unlikely that the British Prime Minister or any other European leader will manage to persuade Biden to lift the "meaningless restrictions" on Ukraine.

"God forbid they manage to spend all the funds allocated by Congress and deliver all the weapons at least to the European continent, so that they can then hand them over to us. Because one of the scenarios we might face is that Trump will cut off assistance and start pressuring Ukraine," he explained.

Then, according to Khara, Ukraine would at least have some time and resources to convince Trump to change his position regarding the war. But that would be a different term, a different president, and different challenges, he summarized.

The preparation of this material included statements from Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrey Sibiga, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, publications from Politico, The Telegraph, as well as comments from foreign policy and security expert and Deputy Head of the Board of the NGO "Institute for Strategic Black Sea Studies" Alexander Khara.