Paying Ukrainians to return home: why this concept deserves consideration.

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The forced departure of millions of Ukrainians abroad due to the war and overall uncertainty has become one of the most pressing issues for the country. This has resulted in a significant demographic crisis, which experts are increasingly discussing. Today, Ukraine finds itself in a “demographic abyss”, and this challenge is becoming increasingly threatening for the state and the future of its people. The question of bringing at least some citizens back home has turned into a fundamental challenge for the government.

In this context, recent information has emerged suggesting that the Cabinet of Ministers is allegedly preparing a financial incentive program for citizens returning to Ukraine. It was said that this would involve “million-dollar payments.” However, this news was later officially denied – an important point.

Nonetheless, the idea itself raises at least a certain level of interest. After all, why not? Isn’t our choice of options rather limited?

Why could return payments be a morally contentious yet overall positive initiative from the government’s perspective, and is there any economic rationale behind it? Political analyst UA.News Nikita Trachuk, along with economic experts, explored this issue.

 

Demography as a Key Threat

The war and the demographic crisis it has caused are currently a key threat to the physical existence of Ukrainians. It is not just Ukraine as a state that is at risk, but Ukrainians as its indigenous population. The state can continue to exist, and there will still be people living in it. The main question is: who will that be?

Unfortunately, history has numerous examples of peoples who have disappeared, simply dissolving in the whirlpool of events. From the Sumerians or Aztecs to the great Roman Empire or the Maya civilization – not just individual peoples, but entire civilizations have vanished when they lost the ability to reproduce themselves. Who remembers the Minoans or the Khmer Empire today, aside from historians studying ancient times? Once, they were great nations and advanced states of their era.

Ukraine is facing a similar challenge today. Currently, we are experiencing a record high mortality rate and an all-time low birth rate over the past 300 (!) years. This is not just someone’s personal opinion or assumption; it is data from the Ministry of Social Policy. Mass emigration (millions of people who have left), record-low birth rates, and equally record-high mortality rates, including ongoing casualties in the war – all of this creates a “demographic chasm” that is very difficult to escape, if it is even possible.

It is important to understand: the loss of millions of citizens in Ukraine is not just an abstract decrease in population numbers. It represents the loss of invaluable human capital, the loss of labor force, women of reproductive age, a decline in consumption levels, a drop in tax revenues, and so forth. Consequently, it leads to the effective “draining” of the state. This is why demography is a key threat: without people, there is no sense in a state or in fighting for it. In this logic, why fight for land where there will simply be no inhabitants left?

What Will the Program to Bring Ukrainians Back Cost?

The news about return payments, which was later denied, mentioned sums in the “millions of hryvnias” for citizens who decide to come back to live in Ukraine. Let’s imagine that each returning Ukrainian receives a million. That’s approximately $25,000 at the current NBU exchange rate.

How significant is this sum